Round Zero
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December 9, 1998 Holiday Party

Prediction Awards

MOST BEAR
Even Yahoos gets the blues; portal stocks retrench 50%.

Dow Averages 8,000 in 1999.

Dow crashes through 7000.

MOST BULL
The Dow hits 10000.

The Dow will hit 11,000 in 1999.

Asia rebounds and Dow hits 11K.

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MOST BOLD
Lycos leapfrogs ahead of the competition!

Cybershop is the most profitable Internet company.

MOST THOUGHT-PROVOKING
Amazon.com best seller list tops NY Times best seller list in popularity.

The home run will be for the site that is the king of the cyberspace 'blue-light' special.

Purchasing brands (Amazon, eBay) will overtake information brands (Yahoo!, Excite) as the true Internet powerhouses.

MOST AMUSING
Balmer and McNealy have a steel cage wrestling match for charity.

Bill Gates purchases the state of Washington.

Someone in Silicon Valley will read a Jane Austen novel - and enjoy it.

$10,000 in Backstreet Boys CDs is purchased through Amazon.com using Steve Jobs stolen credit card.

MOST VERBOSE
Intel emerges as the most powerful force in the anti Microsoft alliance. Intel goes into the software business, in particular, OS, and leads an effort to unite the Unixes. Microsoft squeezes out Spyglass, integrating what it needs from Spyglass into the MSFT free "microbrowser". All sorts of wireless technology continues to take off. Technological problems related to IP and satellite are somewhat mitigated. eBay is acquired by/merges with Amazon (or else MSN or AOL). Sun and Cisco become household names. The network computing model continues to take off (no matter what it is called). Software sales become less important. Services continue to emerge as the most viable business model for software/tech/Net companies.

MOST PASSE
Record number of high-tech IPOs.

Amazon.com will emerge as the clear leader in e-commerce.

All TV ads run during the 1999 SuperBowl will point you to a Web site.

MOST COMMON
AOL Buys Excite, Intuit.

AOL acquires Excite.

MOST SELF-AGGRANDIZING
Homeshark will IPO.

MOST FUTURIST
Wearable computers begin to make an appearance - the first big thing in the new millennium.

Robot politicians will be common (called Gores) by 2010.

MOST CONSPIRATORIAL
It will be revealed that Microsoft orchestrated the entire NSCP/AOL/Sun alliance/merger behind the scenes to stave off the Justice Department. Bill Gates is indicated on RICO violations.

Arson destroys the soon to be opened Silicon Valley campus of Microsoft; a search warrant is issued to Barksdale.

MOST OPTIMISTIC
Free long distance telephone service for one and all before 12.31.99.

Free long-distance phone service for calls within the US.

Bill Gates resigns as CEO of Microsoft.

Nirav gets engaged.

MOST BROWN-NOSING
Round Zero makes The New Yorker magazine.

Round Zero goes public, symbol - RZ!

Round Zero creates financing arm for promising startups.

Oliver Muoto goes public.

MOST YAHOO!
Hackers infiltrate Yahoo!.

Yahoo! buys Time, Inc.

Yahoo! acquires AOL for $50B dollars.

Yahoo! buys CBS to offer integrated simultaneous Webcast and TV programming.

MOST FARCICAL
Rather than cut rates further, the Fed adopts a java applet allowing individuals to print money on their DeskJets.

MOST LIKELY
E*Trade will be acquired by a major financial services company.

Several of the vertical portals merge to form a vertical portal network.

Microsoft wins over DOJ, loses OS marketshare to Linux.

MOST INSIGHTFUL
PC makers release Windows CE desktops that (1) are appealing to consumers (2) run all the apps they need, office + browser (3) support instant-on (4) and most importantly - do not use an Intel microprocessor.

It's going to be a great year!



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