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December 8, 1999 Holiday Party

Prediction Awards

MOST DOH!
The penultimate of too much money chasing to few deals, Homer Simpson gets $20M to pursue his dream of eDoughnuts.com Of his flagship product Mr. Simpson commented "This donut has purple in the middle, purple is a fruit." Had eDoughnut not been such a success Mr. Simpson was ready to team up with celebrity pal Drew Carey to launch Gummy Beer.

MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN
Electronic invitation services (like Evite and Seeyouthere) will begin to provide full service event planning through mergers or alliances with online gift registry companies, party planning portals (greatentertaining.com), online grocers, movie rental businesses, and ticket agents.

BOLDEST
1. Half of the dotcoms that advertise on the Super Bowl go belly up within the year.
2. Hillary Clinton becomes a US senator.
3. At least one of the Speiser brothers makes the cover of a major magazine.

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MOST COMMON
There will be more mergers in 2000 than IPOs in 1999.

MOST BULL
December 31, 2000 -- The NASDAQ, led by new issues in the wireless and B2B Internet sectors, push the index over the 5000 mark for the first time in its history.

BEST MERGER
Excite and Yahoo! will merge to team up against Microsoft. The combined entity will be named Excitehoo?

MOST SELF-AGGRANDIZING
Evite will go public, hit a $10B valuation, be entered into Webster's Dictionary, and achieve Total Global Domination by October, 2000.

MOST VERBOSE
1. At 12:01AM, on 1/1/00, the Internet will blackout. In the ensuing chaos and uproar, the markets plunge and a global panic overcomes every nation on every continent. Old Cold War tensions rekindle and skyrocket, and a regional conflict breaks out when a renegade Balkan Republic, Kreplachistan, declares war on Mother Russia. Missiles fly, and Silicon Valley, New York, Los Angeles, Tokyo, Moscow, New Delhi, Rome, London, Beijing and Quito, among others, are all reduced to smoking, radioactive piles of mutant-infested rubble. The world sinks into a post-apocalyptic hell, and it takes mankind another millennium before someone rediscovers the PC. Future historians, after centuries of investigation, finally discover that the cause of all of this was a drunk maintenance guy at Sprint accidentally pulling the plug.
2. Jerry Yang, David Filo, and Tim Koogle of Yahoo are all revealed to be Pokemons.
3. Everyone in Silicon Valley will awaken to discover that this was all a collective dream and that we are really a tribe of Cro-Magnon living in Pangaea, without a clue about what a "wheel" is, let alone what TCP/IP, WAP, and XML mean.
4. Jim Clark will conceive the newest new, new thing, get first round funding, hire a top notch engineering and management team, get second round funding, successfully IPO, and subsequently get it acquired for 200x the IPO price (while managing to keep 50% for himself), all within a 24 hour period and all from the helm of the Hyperion.

MOST DISGUSTING
Amazon adds body organs from Gulag prisoners -- the ethical question, says Bezos, is should the organs be auctioned, or sold retail-style. Bezos worried auctions "might send the wrong signal and create socially negative incentives."

MOST ASTRONOMICAL
Kleiner Perkins will invest $1 billion in MyMoon.com: a new Web infrastructure facilitating the sale of ads on the Moon.

MOST COMICAL
SGI will spin-off Cray, AOL will spin-off Netscape, and eBay will spin-off Butterfield and Butterfield. All three spin-offs will merge into new corporation that auctions off failed hardware and software companies to the bidder with the most insane market cap.

MOST SILICON VALLEY
I predict that there will be lots of "everything important on the Internet has already been done" predictions and then there will be a lot of important new companies created to prove them wrong.

MOST RZ-BROWN NOSING
Five companies founded by Round Zero members will go public in the year 2000.

MOST CREATIVE
The City of Santa Clara goes public, trades up only moderately, and in 2 months is acquired by Yahoo!. You now cannot drive down the 101 without going through Yahoo Jerry Yang says, "Santa Clara is very sticky. Particularly in the summer, without air conditioning." eBay responds with a seed round investment in San Jose.

MOST WHO'S YOUR DADDY?
Even my father will be on and be comfortable using the Internet next year.

MOST LOW TECH
I predict that white loafers and leisure suits will make a comeback.

MOST VC
The VC Shuffle continues: John Doerr and Bob Kagle burn their firms to form "Big Daddy Ventures" and raise $6 billion overnight.

MOST FUTURISTIC
Ten years from now, half the brands we consider 'dominant' will be irrelevant, replaced by brands we have not heard of yet.



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