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June 9, 1999 Event

How the Web Was Won: Flawless Execution or Fortune by Good Fortune?

In the spirit of the historic nature vs. nurture debate, a bevy of Internet sagas raises the question of why some startups blossom into behemoths while others become bullet points in MBA case studies. Companies such as Netscape, AOL, Pointcast, eBay, and Yahoo! grace technology headlines and dominate water cooler talk, routinely commanding the attention and advice of armchair CEOs with 20-20 hindsight. In an age when valuations are outrageous and profit is an afterthought, it is interesting to examine how some of the Internet's most successful players managed to secure their fates. Yet there is no simple equation to forecast success in an industry where who you are comes second to who you're perceived to be.

What differentiates skillful adaptation from good old-fashioned luck? Take Pointcast. The high-profile darling turned down half-a-billion dollars only to be digested quietly years later for embarrassingly less. How about AOL, predicted to be doomed as a proprietary online service? The company somehow found the legs to run marathons around its competitors, establishing itself as a dominant force. But if AOL could resurrect itself, why couldn't Netscape, which went into a business model tailspin from browser company to enterprise company to media company? Even the most rigorous analyses are exercises in futility, as esoteric combinations of brand, execution, timing, and the x-factor coalesce into recipes for success.

Netscape Found Key to the Web; Others Exploited It

PointCast Learns There's No Rest for the Wicked

Why eBay Is Flying

Why AOL Rules the World

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Key Learnings

I'D RATHER BE LUCKY AND GOOD
While there is no single key to success, most winners exhibit skills in execution, branding, and adaptability. Though luck can make a company, only execution can sustain it. The infusion of an experienced management team at the right time often marks the difference between good fortune and real fortune.

THE INTERNET DYNAMIC DUO: BUZZ AND BRAND
Internet success stories often begin the very second that nascent companies form. It's called buzz, and is the next generation of vaporware. In an industry infatuated by potential, buzz becomes sustainable lifeblood to budding brands. Yet while buzz and brand bring in customers, only a quality product keeps them.

FIRING THE FIRST SHOT DOES NOT MAKE THE BEST SOLDIER
While first mover advantage is widely credited in countless success stories, it does not guarantee victory. First mover must be leveraged rather than relied upon, especially since Internet time is so precious. There are countless examples of first movers who were bumped out of the spotlight (books.com vs. Amazon; Onsale vs. eBay).

THE CUSTOMER IS ALWAYS RIGHT
A large part of customer-centricity involves top-notch customer service. Companies strong in customer service can overcome lulls in product quality due to customer confidence and user lock-in. Listening to feedback loops is an instrument of success for companies who strive to deliver solutions to customers that meet their needs.



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