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May 10, 2000 Event
The Dawn of Wireless Internet:
Next Great Frontier or Overhyped Fad? Every so often there are disruptive technologies. The PC was one, the Internet was one, and now wireless technology is poised to become the "Next Big Thing." Simply stated, wireless enables computing to move to devices that are on your person and allow you to communicate anytime, anywhere. The potential alone is staggering: over 1B subscribers by 2003 according to Forrester. Wireless even may have the ability to topple PCs -- it's easier to use, local, ubiquitous, and millions of people already are comfortable with the devices. Because of its unlimited mobility and constant connectivity, wireless Internet has the potential to be the next great tidal wave in the world of technology. If executed correctly, wireless Internet will be nothing more than a natural extension of everything you do. When on the road, you'll have access to valuable travel information. When shopping, you'll quickly find what you're looking for at the best price. When socializing, you'll be able to easily find others with similar interests. Wherever you go, you'll be able to take the world with you. Anything that works with e-commerce, you should be able to do on wireless. Even more exciting, wireless networks know exactly where their users are -- and through either global positioning systems (GPS) or triangulation of location, users will be able to benefit from geographical context like never before. Is it possible that all the grand talk of a wireless Internet is more promise than substance? Current wireless traffic is 98 percent voice and only 2 percent data, while more than 50 percent of fixed line traffic is data. And don't forget the issue of bandwidth: wireless Internet today precludes any sort of rich data experience. Finally, we may have heard this story before: a search on 'wireless computing' at www.nytimes.com yields a piece entitled "The Coming Age of Wireless" -- unfortunately, that article was written in June of 1998. There definitely are many unanswered questions, but if wireless Internet does reach its potential, it is certain to change the way we live, work, and communicate. I Was Wrong: A Wireless World Is Wonderful
Key Learnings
THE TIMING OF WIRELESS INTERNET
The year 2000 is not the year of wireless Internet. Much as wireless voice services took over a decade to reach mainstream usage, wireless Internet is only now in its early adoption phase and will take years to fully cross the chasm. Non-critical content and capabilities rather than mission critical applications will drive wireless Internet adoption.
Between the dawn of wireless Internet and its full market penetration, countless companies will fail striving for a wireless market presence. 90% of today's wireless startups will not survive to see the year 2002 - infrastructure buildout and branding are expensive, and revenue will be scant in the foreseeable future. In today's market climate, investors will not build tomorrow's wireless world on yesterday's Amazonesque promises.
THE FACE OF WIRELESS INTERNET
Interface is everything. While popular startups such as TellMe offer a compelling vision of a voice-activated future, voice menus seem best suited for serial tasks such as driving directions. Mobile users are more time sensitive than desktop users, implying the high time cost associated with navigating voice menus make them ill suited for mobile wireless scenarios. Mobile Internet users, where possible, will prefer the more parallel data digestion process associated with screen-based interfaces.
Unfortunately for today's early adopters, carriers will control the wireless Internet interface in the near future. Users can expect inferior interfaces that sacrifice user convenience for lucrative corporate link placements. Like ISPs, wireless carriers will not "own" the customer like AOL or Yahoo! unless they can add high-value "sticky applications." Historically speaking, access providers have a poor track record in offering both desirable service and desirable content. Innovators will emerge to help users download popular portal interfaces, relegating carriers' offerings to their core competency.
THE FORM OF WIRELESS INTERNET
Convenience is king. Two devices are bulkier than one and users will simply not opt to carry one device for data and another for voice. Combination devices that mix PDA functionality with cell phone calling service will ultimately win the form-factor war. The basic Palm approach seems best positioned for success versus Win CE: many users do not love their desktop let alone yearn to carry it around with them.
Manipulating wireless data will have multiple forms, potentially obviating the rise of a "killer app." E-mail, Web browsing/clipping, group calendaring/scheduling/messaging, and location-based services will comprise the basic palette of wireless capabilities. And WAP, despite its popularity on the wireless scene, will not remain the dominant technology associated with wireless access as it has proven unsatisfactory for developing phone-based interfaces.
THE THREAT OF WIRELESS INTERNET
If a killer app does not exist for wireless Internet data, a killer capability may: location-based services. Literally adding a new dimension to user access, location-based services promise to usher in a new era of real-time convenience to on-the-go users. All too familiar privacy issues which plague the online world, however, threaten to stymie user adoption of the "onair" world.
GPS and other location-identifying systems represent an old threat in a new medium. Expect similar user adaptation patterns to emerge: a certain percentage of the wireless-using populace will opt-in for corporate sponsored location-identification while the remainder bask in their privacy. Many users will happily sell their geographical location as quickly as they sell their desktop real-estate to advertisers today as long as local supermarket discounts, advertising-supported cell phones, and local merchant supported wireless access are dangled in front of them.
QUOTES OF THE NIGHT
"If there is a time for another country to leapfrog America technologically, wireless will be their way."
"It is not going to work. I have seen the technology that is going to replace it, but I can't tell you about it. So just trust me."