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November 14, 2001 Event
Holiday Shopping 2001: Predictability Is Progress
As traditional retailers brace for a holiday shopping season fraught with uncertainty, online retailers are facing quite the opposite: the first fairly predictable holiday season. The (few) surviving online retailers have gained hard-earned experience by dealing with a myriad of problems over the last few years, from logistics snafus to outright bankruptcies. With five holiday seasons under their belts, they are prepared for this year's onslaught. But will there indeed be an onslaught? According to Jupiter, online shoppers will spend $11.9 billion during the 2001 holiday season -- a scant 11% increase over last year's $10.8 billion number. Most pundits have come to similar conclusions about e-holiday spending. The days of triple-digit growth have been replaced by more modest expansion in sales amidst continued growth of the overall buying population.
The major reason for reduced expectations is the faltering economy. Yet even assuming people will buy less, they still will buy some products. At the very least, people will continue buying online for its convenience. In terms of where consumers will shop, it is interesting to note that the two major pure plays -- Amazon and Ebay -- are embracing each other's models: Amazon is morphing into a marketplace and Ebay is bolstering its retail business. This year also heralds a critical mass of offline retailers finally migrating their wares to the online world. In addition, web portals and comparison shopping sites will be key to helping holiday shoppers get their goods with as little hassle as possible. With all these sites, shoppers should be able to count on adequate customer service and product delivery. After all, these are businesses who have survived the online retail fallout.
Of course, there are plenty of wild cards. One example is the impact of terrorist-related developments. It's a safe bet that there will be no fake snow around Santa Claus attractions in malls. A paranoid notion? Perhaps. But there are multiple reasons for consumers to be fearful these days -- and that could help online retailers. A Vividence survey reports that 37% of respondents plan to shop online more than they did last year specifically to avoid shopping centers. Another possible plus is that Americans in the habit of visiting relatives with armloads of gifts are expected to travel less this holiday season. And don't forget the anthrax scare, which could make people afraid of packages. The good news is that those consumers who do indeed utilize the web for their holiday shopping needs will be greeted by improved experiences and more mature merchants.
Back from the Dead: Online Shopping
To-Do List for Christmas: This Year, the Little Things
Battling Scrooge: Online Retailers Innovate in Face of Muted Economy
